Is Social Media the New Fortune-Teller? Predicting Oscar Winners Based on Social Media Sentiment

oscars-socialLook no further than social media to predict the winners of award shows – not to mention box office grosses, outcomes of sporting events, and more. For every uninformed social media user, there are many more experts weighing in on events and topics in social media, coming together to offer sound insights and predictions.

General Sentiment, for one, put out its Oscar Predictions report, using social media and Twitter sentiment to predict this year’s Oscar winners in the Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Actress categories. (General Sentiment is not a Sterling client.)

As it turned out, the General Sentiment report correctly predicted the Best Picture and Best Actor award winners. And, as Meat Loaf said, two out of three ain’t bad!

Our client, Attensity, also got into the prediction action, with its media and entertainment arm, Attensity Media, analyzing social media sentiment and correctly predicting Argo as the Best Picture award winner.

Armed with this 66% success rate, social media sentiment is a valid predictor of awards shows. Add to the mix the aforementioned box office grosses and sporting events, and social media can be used to predict almost anything.

Think what social media can offer in predicting the success of PR campaigns and product launches.

For example, with Attensity, Whirlpool gets early warning for safety and warranty issues and, in many cases, has been able to mitigate expensive recalls through an early view offered via social media analysis. They extrapolate an ~80% savings on their costs of recalls due to early detection with Attensity.

What else can social media be used to predict? Chime in below in the Comments field.

Jordan Hubert can be reached at jhubert@sterlingpr.com. Follow Jordan on Twitter @jahubert.

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